Demographic Influences on Economic Growth, 1968-83

This paper describes an econometric investigation of the effects of population growth on the growth of output. A structural model yields an equation expressing output growth as a function of both demographic and nondemographic variables. This equation is estimated from data on 142 six-year growth periods in 85 countries at all levels of per capita output. Higher fertility is found to lower output growth in the short run and raise it in the long run (after twelve years). Nondemographic factors found to stimulate output growth include export orientation, improvements in the terms of trade, human capital formation, and reductions in political violence.